I was reporting this story when one of my interviewees – an accomplished songwriter active in music industry groups – said, almost in passing, that “production music is toast.” As one blogger noted, if you work in that space, you’ve likely already heard something to that effect. But is it true? Is most TV, film and advertising background music going to be AI generated soon? 

To get a better picture, I spoke to a couple people in very different parts of that world: a senior executive at one of the world's largest independent production music companies – who chose to speak on background – and Paul Brill, a veteran film and TV composer who has spent decades working across docs, television and advertising.  

According the exec, nothing is toast yet, but people are watching the lower end of the business - aka “functional music,” cheap, usable and cleared music for stores, social media, entry level brands – where pressure is building. He described royalty-free services like Epidemic Sound and Artlist as the real canary: if AI starts taking their customers, it means the threat might be moving up the pyramid.

The more mundane the music, the better chance that AI will be involved soon, if it isn’t already: “Anything where people won't notice if it's not awesome” is in trouble, said one songwriter. “You know, background music for a manicure.” Composer Brill talked about a friend who is developing AI music for various locations at the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics. “Are we there now?” Brill said. “That’s it?”

The premium tier is still chugging along; the senior executive said that his company hasn’t lost any clients attributable to AI. Many clients, worried about the copyright uncertainty hanging over AI music companies, are asking for assurances that the music they license is doesn’t have any AI. One songwriter said that Disney made writers sign a guarantee that they hadn’t used AI in any of their music. 

Whatever the current realities, there is a constricted view of the future. The exec was clear that the total addressable market for production music isn't growing; he is focused on taking clients from competitors. He hopes that his company can pick up some of the slack from big companies that are cutting, like Warner Chappell and BMG, who have both merged their sync and production music units. 

Brill says he has enough work, but chose to step back from production music a couple years ago to pursue a passion project — a stage musical and an animated film. When young composers reach out to him for advice, he says, “I don’t really have a roadmap I can give you anymore.” Instead, he focuses on give human-level advice: “Just being kind to people, being honest, being punctual, being respectful." 

"You can find a little pocket, a little niche here and there,” he tells them, “if you're creative and kind and inventive, you can find a place to carve something out."

I’d love to hear your thoughts on this; email me at [email protected]

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